Edwards, Gilgeous-Alexander, ???: We ranked the top 12 players from the second round of the NBA playoffs
Young stars of the Wolves and Thunder both land in the top three of the playoffs' most valuable players (ranked by the numbers). Who else joins them?
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With two rounds of playoff basketball in the books, the NBA's 2024 postseason rolls on to the conference finals. But how did we get here? Who were the driving forces carrying their teams to the doorstep of the NBA Finals?
Just like we did after Round 1, we'll be ranking the top players of the playoffs to date -- filtering down to those whose teams made the second round -- by using a mixture of statistics. Specifically, we're blending estimated RAPTOR, box plus/minus (BPM), win shares and player efficiency rating (PER) into a single measure of consensus wins, with each component getting equal weight. (We'll also be adjusting for the number of games each team played, so players whose teams won more quickly don't get penalized.)
The rationale for mashing up our metrics is that we're getting an overall picture of who has looked the best according to a variety of popular stats. And yes, these metrics often value two-way play, as well as scoring efficiency in addition to pure volume -- so players such as Luka Dončić and Jalen Brunson (both of whom have below-average true shooting percentages during the playoffs) might get downgraded when compared with Nikola Jokić or Anthony Edwards and their sky-high shooting marks.
Remember, this is purely a statistical ranking, unaltered aside from the adjustments we made to put each rating on the same scale of wins added. It's also important to note that this isn't a ranking of the league's best players in the playoffs; it's just based on who has put up the best performances since the postseason began in April.
Here are the 12 most valuable performers of the first two rounds among teams that punched their tickets to the conference semifinals, by the numbers:
1. Nikola Jokić, C, Denver Nuggets
RAPTOR wins: 2.8 | BPM wins: 4.6 | Win shares: 2.6 | PER wins: 4.7 Consensus wins: 3.7 | Per game: 0.306
Despite the second-round loss to Minnesota, it's not really that surprising to see Jokić at No. 1. He was on top of our ranking coming out of Round 1, and he averaged his customary 29 points, 11 boards and 8 assists in the latest series. The Wolves made Jokić less efficient than usual -- his 59.6% true shooting in the series (which included a dismal 23% success rate from 3) was a far cry from the identical 67.2% marks he produced in last year's Finals and Round 1 of this year's playoffs -- and his muted performance in Denver's 45-point Game 6 loss was Jokić's worst outing by game score since the opening game of the 2023 playoffs. Still, Jokić owns most of the metrics we're looking at here, and likely will maintain his hold for a while.
What's next? The Nuggets' blown 20-point, third-quarter lead in Game 7 against Minnesota will surely haunt Jokić, who scored 21 in the second half but wasn't his usual all-around self as the Wolves took over on Denver's home court (a place where the Nuggets uncharacteristically lost three of four games during the series). Aside from the possible loss of Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Denver can run it back for another go with this group -- and with the caveat that voter fatigue is real, Jokić will certainly be in the mix for a fourth MVP award next season.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, PG, Oklahoma City Thunder
RAPTOR wins: 2.0 | BPM wins: 2.9 | Win shares: 2.0 | PER wins: 3.2 Consensus wins: 2.5 | Per game: 0.254
Gilgeous-Alexander's playoff performance gained steam in Round 2, as he upped his points, rebounds, assists and shooting efficiency against Dallas (as compared with his numbers against New Orleans). Some of the metrics still held it against him that he wasn't able to elevate the Thunder's offense more -- they ranked eighth of 16 playoff teams in offensive rating -- when that had been a regular-season calling card. Despite his top-seeded Thunder getting knocked out in the second round, Gilgeous-Alexander had one of his best playoff games in the season finale, scoring 36 points (on 64% true shooting) with eight assists, even if his last-second foul on P.J. Washington was a blunder he'd like to take back.
What's next? With the Thunder likely to bring back the majority of a roster that won 57 games during the regular season, all eyes will be on Gilgeous-Alexander and the rest of OKC's young core. Gilgeous-Alexander has upped his wins above replacement (WAR) for four consecutive seasons, and after the type of season he had in 2023-24, an MVP award might be the only way to improve his individual resumé. But the real next step is to turn the experience of the Dallas loss into something to remember and use as fuel in the postseason next year... and beyond.
3. Anthony Edwards, SG, Minnesota Timberwolves
RAPTOR Wins: 2.7 | BPM Wins: 3.1 | Win shares: 2.0 | PER wins: 3.2 Consensus wins: 2.8 | Per game: 0.251
Ironically, Edwards was on track to rank ahead of Gilgeous-Alexander until Game 7 of the West semifinal, which saw him score just 16 on 6-for-24 shooting -- a performance that is baked into the stats, but perhaps misses the heroics he provided with dogged defense and several dagger shots during the second half in Minnesota's huge comeback. Either way, Edwards continued his ascent into the NBA's upper echelon. He set the tone immediately against Denver with 43 points in Game 1, dropped 44 (on 16-for-25 shooting!) in Game 4 despite the Wolves' loss, and scored 27 in 33 minutes during the Game 6 blowout win. All told, Edwards averaged an impressive 27.7 points, 5.7 assists and 5.1 rebounds with a 61% true shooting percentage in the Nuggets series, leading the upset charge.
What's next? Edwards had one of his worst statistical games of the regular season against Dallas on Dec. 14 (9 points, 3-for-19 shooting)... but he also averaged 40 per game (shooting 52% from the field) in his other pair of games against the Mavs. It could be a short series if Derrick Jones Jr. can't slow Edwards down any better than the waves of defenders thrown at him by Denver -- which was, statistically, a much better defense during the season than Dallas.
4. Jayson Tatum, PF, Boston Celtics
RAPTOR Wins: 2.2 | BPM wins: 2.1 | Win shares: 1.8 | PER wins: 2.5 Consensus wins: 2.2 | Per game: 0.216
After a good, but far from amazing, first-round series against Miami (he placed 11th in our previous rankings), Tatum looked more like a player who can lead an NBA champion versus Cleveland. During the final three games of the series, which Boston swept to put the Cavs away, Tatum averaged 30.3 points (on 60.1% true shooting) with 11.3 rebounds, 6.7 assists and 2.3 steals -- including a near triple-double in the clincher. Tatum could stand to improve his 28.1% mark from downtown in the playoffs, but otherwise it's hard to nitpick his all-around impact this postseason.
What's next? Tatum could be due for an even bigger performance in the Eastern Conference finals against an Indiana team that ranked seventh-to-last in defensive efficiency in the regular season and allowed him to produce averages of 32.5 points (69.5 TS%), 11.0 rebounds and 5.8 assists in their head-to-head matchups. This will be Tatum's fifth career appearance in the conference finals; he's averaging 23.6 points, 8.1 rebounds and 4.8 assists with a 58.7 TS%.
5. Luka Dončić, PG, Dallas Mavericks
RAPTOR wins: 2.0 | BPM wins: 2.6 | Win shares: 1.5 | PER wins: 2.5 Consensus wins: 2.1 | Per game: 0.178
It's a testament to how great Dončić usually is that he can produce below his normal averages and still be one of the best players of the playoffs. In the second round, Dončić continued his up-and-down play, scoring below 20 in both of the Mavs' losses and producing a true shooting percentage more than five points below his regular-season average. But he also had triple-doubles in each of the final three games of the series, including more Luka-like averages of 30/11/10 in the crucial victories of Games 5 and 6. As mentioned in the intro, Dončić is punished by the metrics for posting a true shooting mark 5 percentage points worse than league average during the playoffs, but the rest of his statistical profile has pretty much been classic Dončić -- and two of his four best games of the postseason were the final two of the OKC series.
What's next? Minnesota is a tough defensive puzzle to solve, with Defensive Player of the Year Rudy Gobert backstopping what was easily the league's No. 1 defense in the regular season. Jaden McDaniels is one of the league's premier 3-and-D wings, coming off a series in which he helped hold both Michael Porter Jr. and Jamal Murray below 50% true shooting. However, Dončić is a whole other type of challenge for any defense, even the game's best. He averaged 36.5 points and 10.5 assists with a 61.2 TS% against Minnesota during the season series.
6. Derrick White, SG, Boston Celtics
RAPTOR wins: 1.5 | BPM wins: 2.0 | Win shares: 1.7 | PER wins: 1.8 Consensus wins: 1.7 | Per game: 0.174
White had a better statistical series than Tatum in Round 1, but he was much more subdued versus Cleveland. He shot an uncharacteristic 38% from the floor, including a massive slump in Games 2 through 4 -- when he went 8-for-30 and failed to score more than 12 in any of those games. White bounced back to pour in 18 (on a better shooting percentage) with six assists and a plus-17 plus/minus in the series finale, however, and his overall postseason numbers remain good. The biggest oddity is the Celtics have been much better (by 12.9 points of net rating) without White than with him.
What's next? Despite Indiana's mediocre defensive reputation, White produced below his usual average game score (11.4 versus 13.8) against the Pacers during the regular season. But the most important aspect of White's conference finals will be what he can do defensively to slow down Tyrese Haliburton, Indiana's most dangerous offensive threat.
7. Tyrese Haliburton, PG, Indiana Pacers
RAPTOR wins: 2.1 | BPM wins: 2.6 | Win shares: 1.6 | PER wins: 2.2 Consensus wins: 2.1 | Per game: 0.163
The Milwaukee Bucks bottled up Haliburton's scoring in Round 1, holding him to 16.0 points per game, though he still doled out a high number of assists. Against the Knicks, Haliburton was more his usual self as a scorer, notching 21.3 PPG with much-improved shooting efficiency, though his passing was less of a factor. He also was largely moved off of hot-shooting Donte DiVincenzo on defense in favor of guarding Deuce McBride -- whose production went up after the change, until a dreadful Game 7 -- by series' end. But Haliburton finished the second round with one of his best games of the playoffs, scoring 26 (on 10-for-17 shooting) with six assists and a plus-21 plus/minus as the Pacers advanced.
What's next? As mentioned above, Haliburton's battle with White will be a key matchup in the Eastern Conference finals. Head-to-head, Boston held Indy's top scorer well below his usual output (15.8 points, 52.9 TS%, 9.0 assists, 5.3 boards) in the regular season. If Haliburton scores that little while making 32% of his 3-pointers again, the Pacers will have trouble knocking the Celtics off their pedestal as big favorites in the series. But we saw Haliburton produce a terrific game (26 points, 10-18 FGs, 5-11 3s, 13 assists, 10 rebounds) against Boston to knock it out of the in-season tournament in December, for whatever that's worth.
8. Jalen Williams, PF, Oklahoma City Thunder
RAPTOR wins: 1.8 | BPM wins: 1.4 | Win shares: 1.2 | PER wins: 1.6 | Consensus wins: 1.5 | Per game: 0.150
One of the themes of the 2023-24 season was the true arrival of Oklahoma City's young talent base -- whether it was Gilgeous-Alexander, Chet Holmgren or Williams, who played a pair of solid series in his first trip to the postseason. Williams seemed to be tailing off against Dallas, scoring a playoff-low 12 in Game 5, but he bounced back with the best statistical game of his young playoff career in Game 6 despite the Thunder loss. A near triple-double (22 points, 9 rebounds, 8 assists) helped propel Williams into the top 10 of our list, though just one extra made shot in the closing sequences of the fourth quarter could have helped the Thunder extend their season.
What's next? Williams has clearly shown himself to be one of the cornerstones of this potential-laden Thunder core. The advanced metrics love him because he does a bit of everything, with strong efficiency and a demonstrable on-court impact. (Oklahoma City's net rating in the playoffs was 10.8 points per 100 possessions better with Williams on the floor than off.) The next step for Williams before he is eligible for a contract extension might be getting comfortable shooting more 3s; he was one of the lowest-ranked players on the team in 3PA/FGA (24%) despite making nearly 43% of his tries.
9. Donovan Mitchell, SG, Cleveland Cavaliers
RAPTOR wins: 1.6 | BPM wins: 2.3 | Win shares: 1.0 | PER wins: 2.3 Consensus wins: 1.8 | Per game: 0.150
A mere "honorable mention" on last round's list, Mitchell continued to score in bunches against the Celtics' defense (31.7), shot 53% from 3 and mostly had the best team in basketball in a dogfight during his minutes. (Cleveland outscored Boston by 17 when Mitchell was on the court.) Unfortunately, a calf injury suffered at the end of Game 3 kept Mitchell in street clothes for the next two games as the Cavs were knocked out of the playoffs. His playoff stats ended up being excellent, especially on offense, but Mitchell will have to wonder what might have happened had he been healthy down the stretch.
What's next? This coming offseason is a big one for both Mitchell and the Cavaliers, as he is eligible to sign a max extension this summer -- or hit free agency next year if a deal isn't done. (In which case, the Cavs would look to trade him.) Mitchell told ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski that he is happy in Cleveland, so there would seem to be optimism about the Cavs building around their star long-term. Mitchell's situation is a big storyline to watch over the coming weeks.
10. Kyrie Irving, SG, Dallas Mavericks
RAPTOR wins: 2.2 | BPM wins: 1.7 | Win shares: 1.4 | PER wins: 1.7 Consensus wins: 1.8 | Per game: 0.147
Irving was arguably Dallas' most important player in Round 1 against the LA Clippers. That was decidedly not the case in Round 2, as Kyrie was held to 15.7 PPG -- and to single digits on several occasions -- by the Thunder. Still, Irving made his presence felt in other ways; he led the Mavs in assists multiple times, was on the court for a scoring margin 23 points higher than when he sat, effectively sealed Game 3 with a clutch lefty floater that gave Dallas a five-point lead with under 40 seconds to play, and notched 22 points (albeit on 9-for-23 shooting with four turnovers) in the Game 6 clincher.
What's next? Kyrie missed three of the Mavericks' four regular-season matchups with Minnesota. Dallas lost those three contests, but won when he played, with his 35 points nearly matching Edwards' 36 for the game. When we get Edwards guarding Kyrie -- as happened roughly one-third of the time in that regular-season game -- it could be the most entertaining one-on-one battle of the entire conference finals. And Irving probably needs to get the better of the matchup again; the Mavs might not be able to survive another series with him being held under 16 PPG.
11. Jalen Brunson, PG, New York Knicks
RAPTOR wins: 1.6 | BPM wins: 1.9 | Win shares: 1.3 | PER wins: 2.6 Consensus wins: 1.9 | Per game: 0.143
One of the most common queries I got out of Round 1's list is this: Why isn't Brunson ranked higher? It's a great question -- and it's fitting that Brunson was going on an Iversonian scoring tear, because Allen Iverson was another example of a high-usage guard whom the numbers had difficulty measuring. Brunson leads all players in the playoffs in usage rate, having personally decided 36.4% of New York's possessions when he was on the court; he also ranks fifth in assist rate, with a dime on 35.3% of his teammates' baskets. Because he took on so much responsibility for his team's offense, the fact that his shooting efficiency was below average was probably not as big a deal as some metrics make it out to be. The other component working against Brunson was his defense, long a source of statistical criticism -- but even there, the Knicks' defense was markedly better with him on the court. It's a terrible shame that Brunson suffered a fractured hand early in the second half of Game 7 against the Pacers, and we didn't get to see him try to lead New York in a comeback effort.
What's next? After an otherwise incredible season that ended on a frustrating, injury-plagued note in a Game 7 loss at Madison Square Garden, the Knicks will regroup and try to maintain their trademark culture for another run. Brunson being under contract will make that task easier, presuming he can recover from the injury by the start of next season. He became synonymous with the tough, hard-working mindset that carried New York as far as they went, and the offensive spark Brunson brings will be essential to the team's future.
12. Karl-Anthony Towns, PF, Minnesota Timberwolves
RAPTOR wins: 1.1 | BPM wins: 1.6 | Win shares: 1.5 | PER wins: 1.9 Consensus wins: 1.5 | Per game: 0.140
Long derided as a player whose postseason bona fides didn't match his regular-season production, Towns has been silencing those critics this spring -- most recently with a 23-point, 12-rebound effort in Minnesota's clincher over the defending champs, co-leading the Wolves in scoring in the first Game 7 of his playoff career. Towns is tracking for postseason career highs in estimated RAPTOR, win shares per 48 minutes, BPM and PER; the only blemish on his playoff metrics is a negative-16.6 on-versus-off plus/minus, with both the Wolves' offense and defense getting much worse when he takes the floor.
What's next? Dallas kept Towns slightly below his usual production (21.0 PPG) during the season series, though he shot for an efficient 63.8% true shooting and grabbed 10.3 boards per game. And the Mavs might need to figure out a new tactic against Towns anyway, since he mostly went head-to-head in those previous games with Grant Williams, who was sent to the Charlotte Hornets at the trade deadline for P.J. Washington. Washington has been one of Dallas' unsung heroes of this postseason at both ends of the court, and Towns' ability to counteract that will be an important factor in Minnesota's bid to make the Finals.
Honorable mention
Pascal Siakam (0.135 wins/game), Jaylen Brown (0.133), Aaron Gordon (0.131), Evan Mobley (0.120)
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