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It's Shota time!Through nearly one-fifth of the 2024 MLB season, Chicago Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga is shaping up as one of the winter's best free-agent bargains, not to mention one of fantasy baseball's biggest success stories to date.
Imanaga, whose four-year, $53 million deal paled in comparison to that of Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander and fellow Japanese import Yoshinobu Yamamoto's 12-year, $325 million contract, entered Tuesday as the No. 12 starting pitcher in terms of fantasy points scored (91) and No. 6 on the Player Rater. Yamamoto, as a point of comparison, was 40th in fantasy points (71) and 42nd on the Player Rater.
What has made the difference for Imanaga in his first season in the States is the performance of his fastball. Statcast grades it as being worth nine runs above average, the second most-valuable individual pitch behind only Corbin Burnes' cutter.
Imanaga's fastball is unusual in that it's both one of the higher-spin fastballs, and it has one of the lower release points around, giving the pitch the perception of being a "rising" fastball. At 19.3 inches of induced vertical break, it ranks fifth among the 77 pitchers who have thrown at least 150 (entering Tuesday). If you're familiar with the advantages of such a pitch -- Dylan Cease, Cristian Javier and Joe Ryan being three notable names who are heavily reliant upon it, for comparison's sake -- you know it typically generates higher swing-and-miss rates, lower hard-contact rates, but also higher fly-ball rates than an average fastball. Imanaga's statistical profile, through five starts, is closely following those patterns.
Another advantage Imanaga has in the season's early stages is opponents' unfamiliarity with the pitch, or his whiff-inducing (43% rate) splitter. On Wednesday, he'll be facing the New York Mets for the first time, meaning he has yet to face the same opponent for a second time. While it's an exceedingly small sample, that Imanaga has limited hitters to a .111 batting average with 15 Ks in 45 trips to the plate during his first trip through the lineup in his five starts fuels an "opponents' unfamiliarity" argument.
Imagana, unsurprisingly, winds up as Wednesday's best projected starting pitcher. He should be a mainstay in your lineup for so long as hitters haven't caught up to him.
Everything else you need to know for Wednesday While the projections continue to shun hot-starting Boston Red Sox righty Kutter Crawford, it's worth pointing out that he scored a mere four fantasy points his last time out, the first time in 2024 that he fell short of his projection. No, it's not the sign of catastrophic regression coming due, but rather a reminder that he isn't quite the natural strikeout artist that his surface numbers indicate. Ranked 33rd in K rate among 76 ERA qualifiers (entering Tuesday), Crawford's No. 46 ranking in whiff rate (percentage of hitters' swings where they flat-out miss) and No. 56 ranking in two-strike miss rate aren't totally in line. Crawford remains a solid every-turn fantasy option, including in this slightly above-average San Francisco Giants home matchup, albeit one with a tad too much helium. With the return of shortstop and No. 2 hitter Carlos Correa on Monday and anticipated activation of closer Jhoan Duran on Tuesday, the Minnesota Twins are getting ever closer to full strength, right at a time where they're tearing through one of the softest portions of their 2024 schedule. Wednesday starter Bailey Ober, who was hammered in his season debut, has straightened things out in four starts since, the past three of which were all quality starts. He's a fantasy must-start against the reeling Chicago White Sox. Twins hitters are near-universal starts as well against Chris Flexen, one of the least strikeout-oriented current starters. Byron Buxton has one of the rare, relevant hitter-versus-pitcher career stat lines against Flexen: 6-for-8, three doubles, two home runs, one walk. Corbin Burnes, 10th in fantasy scoring among starting pitching, gets his toughest test yet, a home game against the New York Yankees. You might remember his only other career start against them, in which he threw eight no-hit innings and he and the Milwaukee Brewers bullpen combined for 10⅓ no-hit frames before ultimately losing in 13 innings, last Sept. 10. Though Alex Verdugo's possible return from the paternity list would improve the Yankees' chances, Burnes should have the advantage in this matchup. Use only your most obvious Yankees bats. Zac Gallen, who left his most recent start with hamstring spasms, has been cleared to start Wednesday's home game against the Dodgers. It's the toughest matchup a pitcher could draw, and while the right-hander has a career 3.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 28.2% strikeout rate with six quality starts in 11 tries against the Dodgers, he did struggle in his two starts against them in 2023 (9.90 ERA). The Chase Field roof is also scheduled to be open, which historically has inflated offense more than with the roof closed, though the gap has considerably narrowed in recent years thanks to the introduction of the humidor (102 run factor, 85 home run factor when open the past three years, per Statcast's park factors; 96 and 81 with it closed). Gallen's projection bakes these concerns in, so prepare your lineups accordingly.It's not too late to start a free fantasy baseball league. Leagues drafted this week will start scoring fresh the following Monday. Come and join the fun!
Starting pitcher rankings for Wednesday Reliever reportTo get the latest information on each team's bullpen hierarchy, as well as which pitchers might be facing a bit of fatigue and who might be the most likely suspects to vulture a save or pick up a surprise hold in their stead, check out the latest Closer Chart, which will be updated every morning.
Best Sub-50% rostered hitters for WednesdayBest and worst hitters from the day are generated by THE BAT X, a projection system created by Derek Carty using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing, and lots more.
Nathaniel Lowe (TEX, 1B -- 20%) vs. Trevor Williams Byron Buxton (MIN, DH -- 15%) at Chris Flexen Lars Nootbaar (STL, CF -- 21%) at Kenta Maeda Josh Smith (TEX, SS -- 10%) vs. Williams Jarren Duran (BOS, CF -- 49%) vs. Daulton Jefferies Jesus Sanchez (MIA, RF -- 1%) vs. Dakota Hudson Riley Greene (DET, CF -- 31%) vs. Miles Mikolas Max Kepler (MIN, RF -- 7%) at Flexen Leody Taveras (TEX, CF -- 3%) vs. Williams Mark Canha (DET, LF -- 11%) vs. Mikolas Worst Over-50% rostered hitters for Wednesday Colton Cowser (BAL, RF -- 65%) vs. Luis Gil Cal Raleigh (SEA, C -- 72%) vs. Chris Sale Salvador Perez (KC, C -- 92%) at Chris Bassitt Jordan Westburg (BAL, 2B -- 79%) vs.Gil Michael Busch (CHC, 3B -- 65%) at Jose Butto Anthony Volpe (NYY, SS -- 81%) at Corbin Burnes Ryan McMahon (COL, 3B -- 52%) at Garrett Gabriel Moreno (ARI, C -- 73%) vs. Yoshinobu Yamamoto Jeff McNeil (NYM, 2B -- 62%) vs. Shota Imanaga
